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The new pariah of the commercial real estate sector, Office REITs, have remained in free-fall in recent months, plunging another 30% this year following a plunge of nearly 40% last year. Just how bad is it? The surge in interest rates has turned a weak-but-manageable situation into a bleak one, but there is more nuance than what the prevailing narrative would suggest.

No slowdown here. After the worst year of performance on record in 2022, Industrial REITs have rebounded this year after earnings results showed a surprising re-strengthening of property-level fundamentals. Recent earnings results showed that demand continues to substantially outpace available supply. Rent growth reaccelerated in early-2023, with rental spreads averaging over 40%, while occupancy rates climbed to fresh record.

Storage REITs are the best-performing property sector this year after lagging in late 2022, lifted by surprisingly solid earnings results and a thawing of the previously icy-cold housing market. Storage demand is driven largely by housing activity – specifically, home sales and rental market turnover - and the recent moderation in mortgage rates has eased concern of a deepening housing recession.

Apartment REITs were the second-worst-performing property sector in 2022 - barely outperforming the troubled office sector - despite delivering a record year of operating performance highlighted by 20% FFO growth. Following two years of historic rent growth, there is little doubt that growth will moderate over the coming quarters. Market consensus sees a "hard landing" with rising vacancies and declining rents.

Despite delivering the strongest earnings growth of any property sector in 2022, Self-Storage REITs have stumbled of late amid a post-pandemic demand normalization and pressure from elevated supply growth. Storage demand is driven largely by housing activity – specifically home sales and rental market turnover. Rental market turnover finished 2022 near historic-lows while home sales also dipped to decade-lows.

Despite lingering recession concerns and recent travel disruptions, Hotel REITs have been among the better-performing sectors over the past year, buoyed by steady post-pandemic operating improvement fueling long-awaited dividend resumptions. Several years of pent-up leisure demand helped to offset a sluggish business and group travel recovery. Hotel revenues eclipsed record highs in 2022, but with wide dispersion between markets and segments.

Pressured by global recession concerns, Industrial REITs dipped by 30% in 2022 - the sector's worst year on record- snapping a seven-year streak of outperformance over the broader REIT Index. The frenzied investment in logistics space clashed with already-tight supply, fueling an incredible surge in rent growth across logistics and warehouse properties. Market rents have soared 50% since early 2021.

History has demonstrated that the performance of equities can be a mixed bag during periods of rising interest rates, emphasizing the need for a diversified portfolio.  The Federal Reserve will announce its next move to combat inflation on Wednesday afternoon, with investors expecting an increase of 0.75%, which would be the largest increase since 1994.

Despite recent concerns that the housing market could be slowing amid rising interest rates, collective home equity has reached fresh highs. Available funds for money mortgage holders to take from their homes while still keeping a 20% equity cushion climbed by a historic $1.2 trillion in Q1 of 2022, according to a new analysis from Black [.

The narrative of transient inflation has fallen to the wayside as the capital markets expect inflation to hang around longer than expected. There are a plethora of options to hedge away inflation, including global real estate exposure.