Amplify BlackSwan Growth Price, Forecast, Insider, Ratings, Fundamentals & Signals

Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF has had a decent performance in 2024, up 4% YTD and 19% since October 2023. The Fund is a diversified stock-and-government bond fund that uses leverage to increase expected returns. While SWAN's losses are capped, there are still risks associated with a decline in the S&P 500 and treasury prices.

We had previously suggested IGLB as the better choice to Sleep Well At Night over SWAN. We examine the performance of the two since our last article. We tell you why we think outlook for both funds has deteriorated.

I wrote about the Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) last week and noted that it was one of the best Sleep Well at Night (SWAN) funds in the market. It combines strong dividend growth and high yield, which explains why it has grown its total assets to over $49 billion.

The Schwab US Dividend Equity (SCHD) stock has staged a strong comeback in the past few weeks. After bottoming at $66 in October, the fund has jumped to $73, its highest point since September 20th.

Amplify's SWAN was launched on November 6, 2018, meeting all expectations through the December 2018 market swoon, the market's 2019 recovery, and withstanding the 2020 Covid-19 crash. As previously warned, the Achilles heel of SWAN is market declines due to high inflation/rising interest rates, which is exactly what occurred in 2022 through Oct. 2023. With 10-year Treasury yields of almost 5%, inflationary pressures seemingly receding, and reduced recessionary fears, SWAN appears poised to protect against large market drawdowns due to non-inflationary factors.

The Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF has performed poorly, declining over 8% in total returns compared to the S&P 500's 5% drawdown. The SWAN ETF's strategy is based on historic negative correlations between stocks and bonds, but it fails to account for the possibility of positive correlation during certain market conditions. The SWAN ETF's poor performance is largely due to the declines in its portfolio of treasury bonds, which are negatively correlated to rising interest rates.

Despite the Fed's most aggressive tightening campaign in decades, the U.S. economy has displayed remarkable resilience, characterized by a robust labor market and strong consumer spending. Inflation too has steadily decreased since reaching its highest point in June 2022.

The erosion of consumer savings, deteriorating profit margins, high interest rates and global economic uncertainties collectively contribute to the somber stock outlook.

Consumer staple companies are considered "defensive" due to steady demand for their products during weak economic times as well as their ability to increase prices during inflationary times. The VDC ETF provides exposure to a diverse range of consumer staples companies - including those in the food, beverage, and household products industries. Investors can benefit from VDC's relatively low expense ratio (0.10%) and its attractive long-term performance track record: a 10-year average annual return of 9.4%.

SWAN: Duration Risk Not Well Advertised